Track record · closed signal

LegalZoom.com, Inc. (LZ) — closed signal from September 17, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 16, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

LZ price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$10.63 Published $12.54 Target $10.17 Window close $12.40 Peak
$10.40 – $10.80Entry zone — fair-value band
$10.63Published — price the day we called it
$12.54Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$12.40Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$10.17Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$12.40
peak on November 6, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+16.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$10.17
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
Window
September 17, 2025 – December 16, 2025

The thesis — published September 17, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$12.54
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$10.40 – $10.80
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$10.63
published September 17, 2025
Confidence
63%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

LegalZoom looks beaten down but financially steady, with no debt and about $203M in cash. A big bank lifted its goal price to $12 on strong subscriptions. A common momentum gauge is very low and the recent average price is inching up, hinting at stabilization. If small business activity improves as borrowing costs ease, shares could repair over the next 0-3 months, once we see stronger-than-usual buying.

Primary drivers

  • Citi lifted its goal price to $12 on 09-10, signaling improving outlook.
  • About $203M in cash provides flexibility to invest and handle surprises.
  • Momentum looks washed out; recent average price is slowly turning upward.
  • Rising subscriptions point to steadier, more predictable revenue growth.

How it played out

LZ: the target was not reached

Lyra published LZ at $10.63 on September 17, 2025. The thesis expected 18% growth over the short term, with a target of $12.54. It pointed to no debt, about $203M in cash, a bank goal price of $12, washed-out momentum, a recent average price slowly turning upward, and rising subscriptions.

Inside the window, LZ rose to $12.40 on November 6, 2025. That was a 16.7% peak gain, but it stayed below the $12.54 target. It ended the window at $10.17. The thesis partially played out, but the target was not reached.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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