Track record · closed signal

Parsons Corporation (PSN) — closed signal from September 17, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 16, 2025 — -23.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PSN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$80.20 Published $94.64 Target $61.69 Window close $89.50 Peak
$79.00 – $81.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$80.20Published — price the day we called it
$94.64Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$89.50Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$61.69Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 64% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-23.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+11.6%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+3.3%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$61.69
last close inside the window, ended December 16, 2025
Peak price
$89.50
peak on October 9, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published September 17, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$94.64
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$79.00 – $81.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$80.20
published September 17, 2025
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Parsons looks set for near-term strength. Recent price behavior is improving, and buyer interest is picking up. This matches fresh wins: a $13M Indo Pacific nuclear-security task and an $81M U.S. Army radar and AI contract, plus a new Huntsville facility to support growth. With a solid backlog and steady defense demand, these wins could translate into gains over the next 0 to 3 months as steady buying lifts the price.

Primary drivers

  • New $13M job in the Indo Pacific to support nuclear security work for the NNSA
  • Won $81M U.S. Army contract for radar and AI technology to enhance missions
  • Price trend improving, with buying interest picking back up from recent lull
  • Large order backlog and steady defense budgets point to continued growth

How it played out

PSN: target missed after an early 11.6% peak

Lyra published PSN at 80.2 on 2025-09-17 with an 18% expected gain over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to improving price behavior, renewed buyer interest, a $13M Indo Pacific nuclear-security task, an $81M U.S. Army radar and artificial intelligence contract, a new Huntsville facility, backlog, and steady defense demand.

Inside the window, PSN rose to 89.5 on 2025-10-09, a peak gain of 11.6%. That stayed below the 94.64 target. It never got there. By 2025-12-16, the stock ended at 61.69. The thesis partially played out early, then missed the target and finished well below the publication price.

What happened during the window

On 2025-12-04, Politico reported that the U.S. Department of Transportation selected Peraton for an air traffic control modernization role. Parsons and IBM had competed for that role.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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