Track record · closed signal

Millicom International Cellular S.A. (TIGO) — closed signal from September 17, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 16, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

TIGO price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$45.21 Published $54.25 Target $52.56 Window close $55.45 Peak
$42.17 – $43.29Entry zone — fair-value band
$45.21Published — price the day we called it
$54.25Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$55.45Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$52.56Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$55.45
peak on November 18, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+22.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$52.56
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 17, 2025 – December 16, 2025

The thesis — published September 17, 2025

Predicted growth
+27%
over the measurement window
Target price
$54.25
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$42.17 – $43.29
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$45.21
published September 17, 2025
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Millicom looks set for a re-rating. Recent price action is stabilizing, a well-known service just gave it a perfect score, and a fresh valuation suggests the shares could be about 46% below what the business may be worth. Its Paraguay unit plans to repay $150M of notes, trimming risk. With upbeat sentiment, the stock could drift higher over the next 0-3 months as more buyers notice the value.

Primary drivers

  • Respected rating service gave a top score on Sep 16, signalling strength
  • Valuation work indicates roughly 46% upside to fair business value
  • Paraguay subsidiary aims to repay $150M notes, reducing balance-sheet risk
  • Shares looked oversold, but the short-term trend is turning upward

How it played out

TIGO: peak cleared the target, but growth fell short

Lyra published TIGO at 45.21 on 2025-09-17. The thesis expected 27% growth over a short-term window. It pointed to a top score from a respected rating service on Sep 16, valuation work showing roughly 46% upside to fair business value, a Paraguay unit plan to repay $150M of notes, and a short-term trend that was turning upward.

Inside the window, TIGO peaked at 55.45 on 2025-11-18, above the 54.25 target. The data did not record a target-hit day. The peak gain was 22.6%, below the expected 27%. It ended at 52.56. The thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On Nov 14, 2025, Colombia's competition authority approved, with conditions, the integration of Movistar and Tigo mobile operations. The report said the approval was a step toward allowing Telefónica's sale of its Coltel stake to Millicom.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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