Track record · closed signal

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) — closed signal from September 17, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 16, 2025 — +7.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CTRE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$32.35 – $33.32Entry zone — fair-value band

$33.57Published — price the day we called it

$37.88Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$37.97Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$35.99Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 87% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+7.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+13.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.3%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$35.99

last close inside the window, ended December 16, 2025

Peak price

$37.97

peak on December 4, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 17, 2025

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$37.88

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$32.35 – $33.32

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$33.57

published September 17, 2025

Confidence

88%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

CTRE looks like a steady income investment that may rebound soon. The price seems beaten down, but the recent average price is edging up. The company just confirmed a $0.335 quarterly dividend. In August, the sector raised 243% more cash than usual, and one study says shares trade about 41.2% below fair value. With interest rates cooling, income and funding could help it drift back toward prior highs over the next 0 to 3 months.

Primary drivers

The $0.335 dividend signals dependable income for shareholders now
In August the sector raised 243% more cash, improving flexibility
One study says shares are about 41.2% below fair value today
Price looks beaten down while recent average price is starting to rise

How it played out

CTRE: target reached inside the window

Lyra published CTRE on 2025-09-17 at $33.57. The thesis expected 15% growth over a short-term window. It pointed to a confirmed $0.335 quarterly dividend, sector cash raised 243% above usual in August, a study that put shares about 41.2% below fair value, and a beaten-down price with the recent average price starting to rise.

Inside the window, CTRE reached a peak of $37.97 on 2025-12-04. That was above the $37.88 target, with a listed peak gain of 13.1%. The stock ended the window at $35.99. The published thesis played out on price, although it did not hold the peak into the close.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All CTRE signals