Track record · closed signal

Hess Midstream LP (HESM) — closed signal from September 17, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 16, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

HESM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$38.75 Published $42.43 Target $34.09 Window close $38.81 Peak
$37.28 – $38.23Entry zone — fair-value band
$38.75Published — price the day we called it
$42.43Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$38.81Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$34.09Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 2% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$38.81
peak on September 17, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+0.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$34.09
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 17, 2025 – December 16, 2025

The thesis — published September 17, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$42.43
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$37.28 – $38.23
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$38.75
published September 17, 2025
Confidence
66%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Hess Midstream pays steady fees and could be due for a short-term rebound. The price looks beaten down but calming. While a UBS note on 09-10 warned about Bakken drilling risks, the company responded with a $100M share buyback and higher income targets for 2025. Its returns are much stronger than many rivals. If interest rates ease, dependable fee income and buybacks could lift the stock over the next 0 to 3 months, despite basin risks.

Primary drivers

  • Company plans a $100M share buyback and raised its 2025 income outlook
  • UBS lowered its view, pointing to drilling risks in the Bakken area
  • Returns on capital around 23%, far higher than many industry peers
  • Price looks very sold off, suggesting limited near-term downside risk

How it played out

HESM: the target was never reached

Lyra published HESM on 2025-09-17 at $38.75 with expected growth of 12%. The thesis pointed to steady fee income, a short-term rebound setup, a $100M share buyback, and higher 2025 income targets. It also noted a UBS warning on 09-10 about Bakken drilling risks, returns on capital around 23%, and a very sold off price.

Inside the window from 2025-09-17 to 2025-12-16, HESM peaked at $38.81 on 2025-09-17. That was a 0.2% peak gain and stayed below the $42.43 target. It never got there. The stock ended at $34.09. The thesis missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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