Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from September 16, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 15, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$176.60 Published $222.50 Target $176.29 Window close $212.18 Peak
$170.98 – $176.98Entry zone — fair-value band
$176.60Published — price the day we called it
$222.50Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$212.18Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$176.29Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 77% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$212.18
peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+20.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$176.29
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 16, 2025 – December 15, 2025

The thesis — published September 16, 2025

Predicted growth
+26%
over the measurement window
Target price
$222.50
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$170.98 – $176.98
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$176.60
published September 16, 2025
Confidence
81%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is a clear way to invest in AI. The new Rubin CPX GPU announced on 09-16 adds fresh products that keep it ahead. Recent trading shows healthy interest: more buyers stepping in and the recent average price trending upward. Big cloud companies are still spending on data centers, which supports demand. Short-term dips can be chances to buy, with better potential upside over the next three months if sales and sentiment stay firm.

Primary drivers

  • Rubin CPX GPU launch on 09-16 should refresh NVIDIA's product line
  • More buyers than usual and a rising recent average price signal strength
  • Large cloud providers keep investing, supporting steady chip demand
  • Strong sales, profits, and cash flow help the company deliver

How it played out

NVDA: target was not reached

Lyra published NVDA at 176.6 on 2025-09-16 with expected growth of 26%. The thesis pointed to the Rubin CPX GPU launch on 09-16, stronger buying interest, a rising recent average price, large cloud provider spending on data centers, and strong sales, profits, and cash flow.

Inside the window, NVDA rose to 212.18 on 2025-10-29, a peak gain of 20.1%. That stayed below the 222.5 target. It ended the window at 176.29 on 2025-12-15. The thesis partially played out because the stock rose sharply inside the window, but it never got there.

What happened during the window

On 2025-09-18, Nvidia announced a $5 billion Intel investment and a chip development partnership. On 2025-09-22, Nvidia and OpenAI announced a strategic partnership tied to at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems and up to $100 billion of investment.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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