Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from September 16, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 15, 2025 — -0.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$170.98 – $176.98Entry zone — fair-value band

$176.60Published — price the day we called it

$222.50Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$212.18Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$176.29Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 77% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-0.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+20.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$176.29

last close inside the window, ended December 15, 2025

Peak price

$212.18

peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 16, 2025

Predicted growth

+26%

over the measurement window

Target price

$222.50

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$170.98 – $176.98

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$176.60

published September 16, 2025

Confidence

81%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

NVIDIA is a clear way to invest in AI. The new Rubin CPX GPU announced on 09-16 adds fresh products that keep it ahead. Recent trading shows healthy interest: more buyers stepping in and the recent average price trending upward. Big cloud companies are still spending on data centers, which supports demand. Short-term dips can be chances to buy, with better potential upside over the next three months if sales and sentiment stay firm.

Primary drivers

Rubin CPX GPU launch on 09-16 should refresh NVIDIA's product line
More buyers than usual and a rising recent average price signal strength
Large cloud providers keep investing, supporting steady chip demand
Strong sales, profits, and cash flow help the company deliver

How it played out

NVDA: target was not reached

Lyra published NVDA at 176.6 on 2025-09-16 with expected growth of 26%. The thesis pointed to the Rubin CPX GPU launch on 09-16, stronger buying interest, a rising recent average price, large cloud provider spending on data centers, and strong sales, profits, and cash flow.

Inside the window, NVDA rose to 212.18 on 2025-10-29, a peak gain of 20.1%. That stayed below the 222.5 target. It ended the window at 176.29 on 2025-12-15. The thesis partially played out because the stock rose sharply inside the window, but it never got there.

What happened during the window

On 2025-09-18, Nvidia announced a $5 billion Intel investment and a chip development partnership. On 2025-09-22, Nvidia and OpenAI announced a strategic partnership tied to at least 10 gigawatts of Nvidia systems and up to $100 billion of investment.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals