Track record · closed signal

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) — closed signal from September 16, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 15, 2025 — +8.2% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CTRE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$32.54 – $32.93Entry zone — fair-value band

$33.52Published — price the day we called it

$36.51Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$37.97Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$36.26Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 65 days.

At window close

+8.2%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+13.3%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+3.4%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$36.26

last close inside the window, ended December 15, 2025

Peak price

$37.97

peak on December 4, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published September 16, 2025

Predicted growth

+11%

over the measurement window

Target price

$36.51

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$32.54 – $32.93

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$33.52

published September 16, 2025

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

CareTrust looks like a steady, income-focused real estate owner that can still grow. The price has pulled back, but the recent average price trend is steady and buyers could return. A mid-September dividend helps support the stock. On 09-11 the company showed rising profit and sales, and its U.K. expansion adds new income streams. With smaller day-to-day swings, a careful 3-month rebound seems likely if markets stay calm.

Primary drivers

Reliable dividend gives income today and signals confidence in future cash.
09-11 update showed profit and sales rising, improving trust in the plan.
U.K. purchases spread risk and open new paths for steady rent growth.
Usually moves less than the market, which can aid a calm price recovery.

How it played out

CTRE: target reached in 65 days

Lyra published CTRE on 2025-09-16 at 33.52 with an expected 11% short-term rise. The thesis pointed to a reliable dividend, the 09-11 update with profit and sales rising, U.K. purchases, and lower day-to-day swings. It expected a careful 3-month rebound if markets stayed calm.

Inside the 2025-09-16 to 2025-12-15 window, CTRE reached the 36.51 target in 65 days. The peak was 37.97 on 2025-12-04, with a 13.3% peak gain. It ended at 36.26, still below the target. The thesis played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All CTRE signals