Track record · closed signal

Pegasystems Inc. (PEGA) — closed signal from July 7, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 5, 2025 — +1.5% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

PEGA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$51.89 – $54.89Entry zone — fair-value band

$54.60Published — price the day we called it

$70.91Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$60.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$55.43Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 39% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+1.5%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+11.6%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+8.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$55.43

last close inside the window, ended October 5, 2025

Peak price

$60.94

peak on September 24, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 7, 2025

Predicted growth

+30%

over the measurement window

Target price

$70.91

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$51.89 – $54.89

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$54.60

published July 7, 2025

Confidence

75%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Sales beat expectations by 44% and profits tripled, making investors excited. Subscriptions now bring in 80% of revenue at a rich 77% margin. If the share price pushes above $56, watchers think it can climb to $67-70. A July 7 article calling the stock a “Bull of the Day” keeps it in the spotlight for the next few months.

Primary drivers

Q1 sales rose 44% and profits tripled, earning top analyst praise.
Buying has jumped, backing a price pattern that points higher.
80% of revenue is now subscription, giving steady, high-margin cash.
A July 7 headline naming it a top pick keeps public interest strong.

How it played out

PEGA: target was not reached

Lyra published PEGA on July 7, 2025 at $54.60 with expected growth of 30%. The thesis pointed to Q1 sales up 44%, profits that tripled, subscriptions at 80% of revenue, a 77% margin, stronger buying, and a July 7 top-pick headline. It also said a move above $56 could open a path toward $67-70.

Inside the July 7 to October 5 window, PEGA rose to a peak of $60.94 on September 24. That was an 11.6% gain, but it stayed below the $70.91 target. It ended at $55.43. The thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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