Track record · closed signal

Apple Inc. (AAPL) — closed signal from September 14, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 13, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

AAPL price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$233.84 Published $271.00 Target $278.28 Window close $288.62 Peak
$228.96 – $235.94Entry zone — fair-value band
$233.84Published — price the day we called it
$271.00Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$288.62Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$278.28Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 46 days.

Peak price
$288.62
peak on December 3, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+23.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$278.28
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
46
Window
September 14, 2025 – December 13, 2025

The thesis — published September 14, 2025

Predicted growth
+16%
over the measurement window
Target price
$271.00
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$228.96 – $235.94
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$233.84
published September 14, 2025
Confidence
62%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

AAPL shows steady buyer interest, and more of the market is taking part, though price strength is uneven. Plenty of trading activity and upbeat mood point to a slow climb over the next 3 months. Recent news hints the antitrust risk may be lighter, and a top Buffett-style rating adds credibility. Plan: buy small on pullbacks and add if it pushes higher as new on-device AI features and the usual holiday product buzz approach.

Primary drivers

  • Strong interest and ample trading make it easier for the stock to rise
  • New on-device AI and fresh products could lift sales and excitement
  • Buying interest looks steady, suggesting buyers may stay in control
  • Softer legal risk clears a hurdle that had worried investors before

How it played out

AAPL: target reached in 46 days

Lyra published AAPL at 233.84 on 2025-09-14 with a short-term thesis for 16% growth. The thesis pointed to steady buyer interest, ample trading, fresh products, on-device artificial intelligence features, holiday product buzz, and softer legal risk.

Inside the window, the stock reached the 271 target in 46 days. It later peaked at 288.62 on 2025-12-03, a 23.4% gain, and ended the window at 278.28. The published thesis played out according to the price record.

What happened during the window

On October 15, 2025, Apple announced M5 for the 14-inch MacBook Pro, iPad Pro, and Apple Vision Pro. On October 30, 2025, Apple reported September-quarter revenue of $102.5 billion, up 8 percent year over year.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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