Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD) — closed signal from September 14, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 13, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 22 days.
The thesis — published September 14, 2025
AMD's price has fallen enough that it may be overdone, even though many investors remain positive. We prefer buying in small steps and waiting for clearer signs the slide is easing. This week HSBC lowered its goal to 185, which resets expectations but still leaves upside. Over the next 3 months, new AI accelerators and CPUs could spark a rebound if product plans stay on track and buyer interest improves.
Primary drivers
- Price seems beaten down, yet many investors still feel optimistic about AMD
- Upcoming AI chips on the roadmap could lift attention and future sales
- Lowered price target reduces the bar, making positive news more impactful
- We want clear signs of steady buying again before increasing position size
How it played out
AMD: target reached in 22 days
Lyra published AMD at 158.57 on 2025-09-14 with a short-term view and 25% expected growth. The thesis pointed to a beaten-down price, still-positive investor sentiment, upcoming artificial intelligence accelerators and CPUs, a lower HSBC goal of 185, and the need to see steadier buying before increasing size.
Inside the window, AMD rose well past the 198.21 target. It reached the target in 22 days and peaked at 267.08 on 2025-10-29, a 68.4% gain from publication. The window ended at 210.78 on 2025-12-13. The thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-14, Oracle and AMD announced an expanded partnership for deployment of 50,000 AMD graphics processors beginning in the third quarter of 2026. On 2025-11-04, AMD reported third-quarter revenue of 9.25 billion and adjusted earnings of 1.20 per share.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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