NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from September 14, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 13, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.
The thesis — published September 14, 2025
NVIDIA is catching its breath after a strong AI-fueled run. Short-term price signs look calm, but the company's business and overall mood stay solid. News about its tiny dividend shows it prefers to reinvest for growth rather than pay income. Over the next few months, continued customer spending on AI gear should support demand and could set up the stock for another move higher.
Primary drivers
- Leader in AI chips and software, giving it a strong edge over competitors
- Healthy business results and positive sentiment support the long-term story
- Stock is in a steady pause, favoring careful, step-by-step purchasing
- Ongoing AI spending by big buyers keeps demand for its products high
How it played out
NVDA: target was not reached
Lyra published NVDA at 177.81 on 2025-09-14 with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to leadership in artificial intelligence chips and software, healthy business results, positive sentiment, a steady pause in the stock, and continued customer spending on artificial intelligence gear.
Inside the window, NVDA rose to 212.18 on 2025-10-29, a 19.3% peak gain. That stayed below the 213.36 target. It never got there. By 2025-12-13, the stock ended at 175.02. The thesis mostly played out on direction and magnitude, but it missed the target.
What happened during the window
On September 18, 2025, NVIDIA and Intel announced a partnership, with NVIDIA saying it would invest $5 billion in Intel common stock. On November 19, 2025, NVIDIA reported third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $57.0 billion, up 22% from Q2 and up 62% from a year earlier. Data Center revenue was $51.2 billion, up 25% from Q2 and up 66% from a year earlier.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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