Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from September 14, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 13, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$95.89 Published $115.07 Target $85.11 Window close $101.99 Peak
$94.00 – $96.85Entry zone — fair-value band
$95.89Published — price the day we called it
$115.07Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$101.99Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$85.11Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 32% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$101.99
peak on September 22, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+6.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$85.11
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 14, 2025 – December 13, 2025

The thesis — published September 14, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$115.07
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$94.00 – $96.85
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$95.89
published September 14, 2025
Confidence
74%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber's price trend has been getting stronger, and lately there have been more buyers than sellers. News that Lyft's rides grew 14% compared to last year suggests steady demand for ride-hailing. Even though the stock has run up, recent dips have been followed by higher lows, which can be healthy. Over the next few months, improving profits and cross-selling between rides and delivery could help the uptrend continue.

Primary drivers

  • Price trend improving as interest and customer demand keep building.
  • Positive investor mood with more trading activity than usual lately.
  • Lyft's 14% ride growth points to steady demand across ride-hailing.
  • Rising efficiency across rides and delivery can lift profit margins.

How it played out

UBER: target missed after 6.4% peak gain

Lyra published UBER on 2025-09-14 at 95.89 with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to a stronger price trend, more buyers than sellers, Lyft's 14% ride growth as a sign of steady ride-hailing demand, higher lows after dips, improving profits, and cross-selling between rides and delivery.

Inside the window from 2025-09-14 to 2025-12-13, UBER peaked at 101.99 on 2025-09-22, a 6.4% gain. It stayed below the 115.07 target and never reached it. The stock ended at 85.11. The thesis partially played out early, then missed the full target.

What happened during the window

On Nov. 4, 2025, Uber reported third-quarter trips up 22% year over year to 3.5 billion and gross bookings up 21% to $49.7 billion. On Nov. 26, 2025, Uber and WeRide launched fully driverless robotaxi commercial operations in Abu Dhabi.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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