Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) — closed signal from September 13, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 12, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 83 days.
The thesis — published September 13, 2025
Wells Fargo looks more appealing as the price trend improves and the bank sends more cash to shareholders. A $5.5 billion buyback and 20% dividend growth lift confidence. Business lending is expanding as limits ease. Over the next 0-3 months, steady gains are possible if the price keeps making higher lows and moves past recent ceilings. Risks: loan losses returning to normal, profit per loan shrinking if rates drop quickly, and regulatory headlines.
Primary drivers
- Larger share buybacks and a higher dividend return more cash to investors
- Price trend is improving, with buying interest stronger than usual
- Business lending is growing as the bank steps up loan activity
- Results hinge on loan losses and how much the bank earns on loans
How it played out
WFC: target reached in 83 days
Lyra published WFC on 2025-09-13 at 81.03 with expected growth of 12%. The thesis pointed to a $5.5 billion buyback, 20% dividend growth, improving price trend, stronger buying interest, business lending growth, and results that depended on loan losses and how much the bank earned on loans.
Inside the window, WFC reached the 90.28 target in 83 days. The peak was 93.42 on 2025-12-11, above the target, with a peak gain of 15.3%. It ended the window at 92.76. The published thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On October 14, 2025, Wells Fargo reported third-quarter earnings of $1.66 a share on revenue of $21.44 billion, according to Investor's Business Daily. Barron's reported the same day that Wells Fargo raised its return on tangible common equity target to 17% to 18%.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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