Track record · closed signal

Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER) — closed signal from September 13, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 12, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

UBER price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$95.89 Published $115.07 Target $85.11 Window close $101.99 Peak
$94.00 – $96.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$95.89Published — price the day we called it
$115.07Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$101.99Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$85.11Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 32% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$101.99
peak on September 22, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+6.4%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$85.11
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 13, 2025 – December 12, 2025

The thesis — published September 13, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$115.07
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$94.00 – $96.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$95.89
published September 13, 2025
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Uber looks firmer in the near term. Recent price action suggests buyers are getting more active, and news backs it up: Q2 sales rose 18% to $12.7 billion and 180 million people used the platform, showing solid demand in rides and deliveries. Over the next 0-3 months, rising lows could keep pushing the stock higher as the business gets more efficient. Main risks are new rules, heavy discounts, and a weak economy.

Primary drivers

  • More people use Uber for rides and food, lifting sales and profit potential.
  • Improving price momentum points to growing buyer interest near term.
  • A base of 180M users supports steady demand and cross-selling chances.
  • Costs scale better than revenue, so added sales can lift profits faster.

How it played out

UBER: target was not reached

Lyra published UBER at 95.89 on 2025-09-13 with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to firmer near-term price action, Q2 sales of $12.7 billion, 180 million platform users, stronger demand in rides and delivery, and better cost scaling as sales rose.

Inside the 2025-09-13 to 2025-12-12 window, UBER peaked at 101.99 on 2025-09-22, a 6.4% gain. It stayed below the 115.07 target and never reached it. The stock ended at 85.11. The thesis partially played out early, but the target missed.

What happened during the window

On Nov. 4, 2025, Uber reported third-quarter revenue of $13.47 billion, gross bookings of $49.7 billion, and 3.5 billion trips. On Nov. 26, 2025, Uber and WeRide launched fully driverless robotaxi service in Abu Dhabi.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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