Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from September 13, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 12, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$172.48 – $177.98Entry zone — fair-value band

$177.81Published — price the day we called it

$222.25Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$212.18Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$175.02Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 77% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$212.18

peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+19.3%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$175.02

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

September 13, 2025 – December 12, 2025

The thesis — published September 13, 2025

Predicted growth

+25%

over the measurement window

Target price

$222.25

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$172.48 – $177.98

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$177.81

published September 13, 2025

Confidence

80%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Nvidia is still the go-to maker of AI chips, and the stock is catching its breath after a big run. Short-term momentum looks a bit soft, but the recent average price still tilts upward, hinting buyers remain active. This week's attention around AI helps, while China's new look into U.S. chips is a risk. Over the next 0-3 months, a move back above 181 and holding there would point to the uptrend continuing.

Primary drivers

Clear leader in the chips that power AI, keeping demand strong and steady
Stock is pausing for now, but the recent average price is edging higher
Being named in GAMMATON keeps attention high and supports buyer interest
China's new review of U.S. chips is a risk, so position sizes stay small

How it played out

NVDA: thesis partly played out, target was not reached

Lyra published NVDA at 177.81 on 2025-09-13 with a short-term expectation of 25% growth. The thesis pointed to NVIDIA's lead in chips for artificial intelligence, a pause after a big run, a recent average price that still tilted upward, attention around GAMMATON, and China review risk around U.S. chips.

Inside the 2025-09-13 to 2025-12-12 window, the stock rose to a peak of 212.18 on 2025-10-29, a 19.3% gain. That stayed below the 222.25 target. It ended at 175.02. The thesis partly played out, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-09-18, NVIDIA announced a $5 billion investment in Intel and a partnership for data center and PC products. On 2025-11-20, coverage of NVIDIA's results said the company reported $57.006 billion in quarterly revenue for fiscal Q3 2026.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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