Track record · closed signal

ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (ZIM) — closed signal from July 7, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 5, 2025 — -12.6% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ZIM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$15.67 Published $20.74 Target $13.70 Window close $18.00 Peak
$13.94 – $14.71Entry zone — fair-value band
$15.67Published — price the day we called it
$20.74Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$18.00Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$13.70Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 43% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
-12.6%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+14.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+8.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$13.70
last close inside the window, ended October 5, 2025
Peak price
$18.00
peak on August 11, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published July 7, 2025

Predicted growth
+35%
over the measurement window
Target price
$20.74
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$13.94 – $14.71
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$15.67
published July 7, 2025
Confidence
78%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

The company surprised the market with a $295 million profit last quarter and holds $3 billion in cash, yet the stock still trades as if it is in trouble. Chart watchers see signs that selling pressure has dried up, and confidence is soaring after a new U.S.-China trade deal. Because many traders are betting against the shares, a close above $16.3 could force them to buy back, possibly driving the price toward the former $22 level within about twelve weeks, roughly 35% higher than today.

Primary drivers

  • Unexpected $295 m profit and $3 b cash give safety cushion and room to grow
  • Chart signals show selling pressure fading, pointing to a possible trend change
  • Fresh U.S.-China deal boosts demand for shipping, lifting industry outlook now
  • Large number of short sellers could rush to buy back shares once price tops $16.3

How it played out

ZIM: target was not reached

Lyra published ZIM at $15.67 on July 7, 2025, with 35% expected growth toward $20.74. The thesis pointed to a $295 million profit last quarter, $3 billion in cash, selling pressure fading on the chart, a U.S.-China trade deal, and short sellers who might buy back if the price closed above $16.3.

Inside the window, ZIM rose to $18 on August 11, a 14.9% peak gain. It stayed below the $20.74 target. It never got there. By October 5, it ended at $13.70. The thesis only partly played out.

What happened during the window

On August 20, 2025, ZIM reported second-quarter 2025 revenue of $1.64 billion, net income of $24 million, and a $0.06 per share dividend. The company also raised the midpoints of its full-year 2025 guidance ranges.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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