Track record · closed signal

Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — closed signal from September 13, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 12, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

PLTR price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$171.43 Published $212.57 Target $183.57 Window close $207.52 Peak
$168.00 – $171.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$171.43Published — price the day we called it
$212.57Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$207.52Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$183.57Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$207.52
peak on November 3, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+21.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$183.57
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 13, 2025 – December 12, 2025

The thesis — published September 13, 2025

Predicted growth
+24%
over the measurement window
Target price
$212.57
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$168.00 – $171.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$171.43
published September 13, 2025
Confidence
70%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Palantir is a market favorite with strong momentum, but the price looks stretched, so patience helps. News highlighted Oracle's long-term orders jumping 359%, and one firm sees Palantir's business sales up 103%, pointing to rising demand for AI data tools. Over the next 0-3 months, big-company demand and partnerships could keep it going if it holds recent levels; a rich price and insider selling remain key risks.

Primary drivers

  • Business sales are speeding up as more companies sign new deals
  • Oracle's jump in long-term orders hints at more data work for partners
  • Momentum is strong, but the price looks stretched in the short term
  • Shares look expensive, and recent selling by company insiders adds risk

How it played out

PLTR: thesis rose but stayed below target

Lyra published PLTR at $171.43 for a short-term window from 2025-09-13 to 2025-12-12. The thesis expected 24% growth and pointed to faster business sales, Oracle's long-term orders, strong momentum, and demand for artificial intelligence data tools. It also said the price looked stretched, with insider selling as a risk.

The stock rose to $207.52 on 2025-11-03, a 21.1% peak gain. That was close, but it stayed below the $212.57 target. It never got there. PLTR ended the window at $183.57. The thesis partially played out, because the move was strong but the published target was missed.

What happened during the window

On November 3, 2025, Palantir reported third-quarter revenue of $1.18 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $0.21, according to MarketWatch. The same report said Palantir raised its full-year revenue forecast to about $4.40 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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