Track record · closed signal

Lam Research Corporation (LRCX) — closed signal from September 13, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 12, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

LRCX price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$116.54 Published $141.66 Target $160.52 Window close $169.69 Peak
$111.19 – $114.17Entry zone — fair-value band
$116.54Published — price the day we called it
$141.66Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$169.69Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$160.52Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 18 days.

Peak price
$169.69
peak on December 10, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+45.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$160.52
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
18
Window
September 13, 2025 – December 12, 2025

The thesis — published September 13, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$141.66
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$111.19 – $114.17
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$116.54
published September 13, 2025
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Lam Research makes essential tools for chip factories. AI projects are pushing factories to spend more, so orders look steady. Buying has been strong lately, so the price may cool briefly, making small dips attractive. Memory names like Rambus are rising on DDR5 demand, and Micron has an edge, while AI budgets support suppliers. If the price firms up after a pause, gains can continue, though export rules could still cause bumps.

Primary drivers

  • Big AI spending is pushing chip factories to order more tools for production
  • Price momentum is positive, with lots more people buying the stock than usual
  • Companies tied to memory chips and DDR5 are seeing stronger demand trends
  • Export limits on sales to China may persist and could pressure future revenue

How it played out

LRCX: target reached in 18 days

Lyra published LRCX at 116.54 on 2025-09-13 with an expected gain of 22% and a target of 141.66. The thesis pointed to chip-factory tool demand tied to artificial intelligence spending, strong buying momentum, better memory and DDR5 demand trends, and export limits to China as a risk.

Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 18 days. It later peaked at 169.69 on 2025-12-10, with a peak gain of 45.6%. It ended the window at 160.52 on 2025-12-12. The thesis played out, and the move went beyond the published target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-22, Lam Research reported fiscal first-quarter results for the period ended 2025-09-28. Revenue was 5.32 billion, and adjusted earnings were 1.26 per share. The company also guided to 5.2 billion in revenue and 1.15 per share for the quarter ending 2025-12-28.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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