Track record · closed signal

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) — closed signal from September 13, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 12, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

CTRE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$33.56 Published $36.88 Target $35.96 Window close $37.97 Peak
$31.97 – $32.74Entry zone — fair-value band
$33.56Published — price the day we called it
$36.88Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$37.97Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$35.96Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 82 days.

Peak price
$37.97
peak on December 4, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+13.2%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$35.96
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
82
Window
September 13, 2025 – December 12, 2025

The thesis — published September 13, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$36.88
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$31.97 – $32.74
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$33.56
published September 13, 2025
Confidence
82%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

CareTrust rents nursing and senior housing properties. The stock shows hints the slide may be ending as the recent average price steadies. Results are stronger: profits over the last 12 months rose 108% and sales climbed 51%. It expanded into the UK and raised $353.9M to buy more properties. In the next 0-3 months, its dividend and deal pipeline could draw buyers if rates ease. Risks: rate swings and tenant health.

Primary drivers

  • Profits up 108% and sales up 51%, helped by recent property deals
  • Entry into the UK widens the future deal pipeline and growth options
  • Price slide looks tired and recent average price is steadying now
  • Attractive dividend could draw more buyers if interest rates ease

How it played out

CTRE: target reached in 82 days

Lyra published CTRE at $33.56 on 2025-09-13 with a short-term view for 12% growth. The target was $36.88. The thesis pointed to profits up 108%, sales up 51%, recent property deals, the UK expansion, a steadier price trend, and a dividend that could draw buyers if rates eased.

Inside the window, CTRE rose above the target. It peaked at $37.97 on 2025-12-04, with a 13.2% gain, and reached the target in 82 days. It ended the window at $35.96. The thesis played out on price, even though the final price was below the peak.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-05, CareTrust announced third-quarter results, according to Investor's Business Daily. The article reported earnings growth of 35% and sales growth of 71%. It also said CareTrust acquired 12 skilled nursing facilities and one skilled nursing campus across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic regions.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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