Track record · closed signal

NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE) — closed signal from September 12, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 11, 2025 — +13.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NEE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$71.35 Published $79.37 Target $81.21 Window close $86.94 Peak
$69.56 – $71.04Entry zone — fair-value band
$71.35Published — price the day we called it
$79.37Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$86.94Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$81.21Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 21 days.

At window close
+13.8%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+21.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$81.21
last close inside the window, ended December 11, 2025
Peak price
$86.94
peak on October 28, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
21

The thesis — published September 12, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$79.37
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$69.56 – $71.04
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$71.35
published September 12, 2025
Confidence
69%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

NextEra looks like a strong utility whose share price has fallen more than it probably should, creating a possible near-term entry. UBS kept its Buy rating and an $84 target. The company plans $5.5B in battery storage projects, which can make future growth more predictable. We aim for a modest 3-month rebound, but rate swings can hurt, so we prefer smaller, careful buys.

Primary drivers

  • Share price looks overly beaten down, with buyers starting to return lately
  • UBS still rates it a Buy and keeps an $84 target, backing the thesis
  • $5.5B planned battery storage projects that can fuel steadier growth ahead
  • Reliable utility model, but shares can move when interest rates change

How it played out

NEE: target reached in 21 days

Lyra published NEE at $71.35 on 2025-09-12. The thesis expected 12% growth in a short-term window. It pointed to a beaten-down share price, UBS keeping a Buy rating with an $84 target, $5.5B in planned battery storage projects, and a reliable utility model that could still move with interest rates.

Inside the window, the stock reached the $79.37 target in 21 days. It later peaked at $86.94 on 2025-10-28, a 21.9% gain. It ended the window at $81.21. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-12-08, Barron's reported that NextEra announced deals tied to Google and Meta data centers. The same article said NextEra raised its adjusted 2025 earnings forecast to $3.62 to $3.70 per share.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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