Track record · closed signal

GE Vernova Inc. (GEV) — closed signal from September 12, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 11, 2025 — +9.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

GEV price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$628.55 – $648.50Entry zone — fair-value band

$645.26Published — price the day we called it

$773.41Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$730.46Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$703.68Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 66% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+9.1%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+13.2%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+5.1%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$703.68

last close inside the window, ended December 11, 2025

Peak price

$730.46

peak on December 10, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 12, 2025

Predicted growth

+20%

over the measurement window

Target price

$773.41

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$628.55 – $648.50

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$645.26

published September 12, 2025

Confidence

73%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

GE Vernova's price has been strong because lots more people are buying than usual, but the business results still need to catch up. HSBC set a 580 price estimate (Hold). Profits per share could be up about 474% compared to last year, so investors are testing a turning point. We would start small near the suggested buying range and watch execution in wind and grid. If the price slips under ~600 and momentum fades, we'd step aside.

Primary drivers

Profits per share could jump about 474% versus last year if plans deliver
Lots more people are buying than usual; recent average price rising steadily
HSBC raised its price estimate to 580 and kept a Hold rating for now
Onshore wind and power grid businesses are recovering after a tough period

How it played out

GEV: target missed after a 13.2% peak gain

Lyra published GEV at 645.26 on 2025-09-12 with 20% expected growth and a 773.41 target. The thesis pointed to unusually strong buying, profits per share that could rise about 474% versus last year, HSBC's 580 estimate with a Hold rating, and recovery in onshore wind and power grid businesses.

Inside the window, GEV rose but did not reach the target. The peak was 730.46 on 2025-12-10, a 13.2% gain. It stayed below 773.41. The signal ended at 703.68 on 2025-12-11. The thesis partially played out on price direction, but it missed the published target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-22, GE Vernova reported third-quarter results, with revenue of $9.97 billion and orders of $14.6 billion. On 2025-12-10, reports said GE Vernova raised its long-term outlook, doubled its dividend to $0.50 per share, and increased its buyback plan to $10 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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