Track record · closed signal

Harmony Gold Mining Co. (HMY) — closed signal from July 7, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on October 5, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

HMY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$14.54 Published $17.67 Target $18.11 Window close $18.87 Peak
$13.89 – $14.68Entry zone — fair-value band
$14.54Published — price the day we called it
$17.67Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$18.87Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$18.11Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 77 days.

Peak price
$18.87
peak on October 2, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+29.8%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$18.11
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
77
Window
July 7, 2025 – October 5, 2025

The thesis — published July 7, 2025

Predicted growth
+22%
over the measurement window
Target price
$17.67
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$13.89 – $14.68
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$14.54
published July 7, 2025
Confidence
88%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Harmony Gold just reported solid results and kept its targets for next year. A US$1 billion copper mine purchase in June adds a new income stream tied to growing copper demand. Wall Street mood is very positive. The stock trades at only five times its yearly cash earnings, and many expect the price to rise from about $14.60 today to $17.50-18 within three months. Gold’s role as a safety asset gives extra support.

Primary drivers

  • Keeping next year’s output and cost goals calms worries and firms forecasts
  • Buying MAC Copper adds copper sales and taps rising electrification needs
  • Price action shows room to climb as buying strength builds but is not overdone
  • June news confirmed goals and boosted optimism, lifting sentiment near perfect

How it played out

HMY: target reached in 77 days

Lyra published HMY at $14.54 on 2025-07-07 with expected growth of 22%. The thesis pointed to solid reported results, kept output and cost goals, the US$1 billion MAC Copper purchase, positive Wall Street mood, a valuation near five times yearly cash earnings, and gold's role as a safety asset.

Inside the 2025-07-07 to 2025-10-05 window, HMY reached the $17.67 target in 77 days. The peak was $18.87 on 2025-10-02, with a peak gain of 29.8%. It ended at $18.11. The published thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-08-28, the company reported fiscal 2025 earnings. The report said earnings per share rose to $1.27, and Harmony expected to produce between 1.4 million and 1.5 million ounces of gold in the year ahead.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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