Track record · closed signal

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) — closed signal from September 12, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 11, 2025 — +6.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CTRE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$33.45 Published $37.42 Target $35.60 Window close $37.97 Peak
$32.50 – $32.98Entry zone — fair-value band
$33.45Published — price the day we called it
$37.42Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$37.97Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$35.60Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 96% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close
+6.4%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+13.5%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.1%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$35.60
last close inside the window, ended December 11, 2025
Peak price
$37.97
peak on December 4, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published September 12, 2025

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$37.42
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$32.50 – $32.98
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$33.45
published September 12, 2025
Confidence
84%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

CareTrust looks set for a steady recovery. It has put $1.1B into new properties and is entering the UK, which should lift rent. It can raise cash quickly via an at-the-market share program, staying flexible for more deals. If rates ease, we expect a slow 3-month climb toward prior highs as acquisitions close, rents rise, tenants strengthen, and reviews improve.

Primary drivers

  • Investing $1.1B and entering the UK to grow rent and property income
  • Price looks beaten down but trending up, offering a potential rebound
  • Can quickly raise cash through at-the-market shares to fund deals
  • Recent stock reviews are improving, signaling better momentum ahead

How it played out

CTRE: peak cleared target before lower finish

Lyra published CTRE at $33.45 on 2025-09-12 with a 14% expected gain toward $37.42. The thesis pointed to $1.1B of property investment, entry into the UK, room to raise cash through at-the-market shares, improving stock reviews, and a slow 3-month climb as acquisitions closed and rents rose.

Inside the window, CTRE peaked at $37.97 on 2025-12-04, above the $37.42 target. The ledger did not record a target hit. The peak gain was 13.5%, and the stock ended at $35.60 on 2025-12-11. The thesis mostly played out, but it finished below its best level.

What happened during the window

On Nov. 5, the company announced third-quarter results. IBD reported earnings of 35 cents a share, sales of $132.4 million, and acquisitions of 12 skilled nursing facilities plus one skilled nursing campus for $436.5 million. On Nov. 21, IBD reported that the company had made year-to-date investments of $1.6 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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