Track record · closed signal

Iris Energy Limited (IREN) — closed signal from September 12, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 11, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

IREN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$33.03 Published $45.58 Target $43.94 Window close $76.87 Peak
$31.50 – $33.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$33.03Published — price the day we called it
$45.58Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$76.87Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$43.94Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 12 days.

Peak price
$76.87
peak on November 5, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+132.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$43.94
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
12
Window
September 12, 2025 – December 11, 2025

The thesis — published September 12, 2025

Predicted growth
+38%
over the measurement window
Target price
$45.58
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$31.50 – $33.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$33.03
published September 12, 2025
Confidence
93%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

IREN is riding strong interest in building AI data centers. A higher price target from BTIG and a 25%+ weekly jump show buyers are eager. Cash from Bitcoin mining is helping pay for new GPU cloud gear. The trend looks firm, with lots more people buying than usual and mood very upbeat. August mining revenue of $76.7M shows they can fund growth, so the next 3 months look favorable as we plan to buy small dips.

Primary drivers

  • Mining profits help pay for AI GPU cloud build without heavy new funding
  • Strong uptrend with lots more buying than usual in recent sessions
  • Higher analyst target and 25%+ weekly jump signal strong buyer demand
  • Optimistic mood makes brief pullbacks more likely to find willing buyers

How it played out

IREN: target reached in 12 days

Lyra published IREN at $33.03 on 2025-09-12, with expected growth of 38% over a short-term window ending 2025-12-11. The thesis pointed to strong interest in artificial intelligence data centers, Bitcoin mining cash funding GPU cloud gear, heavy recent buying, a higher analyst target, a 25%+ weekly jump, and August mining revenue of $76.7M.

The stock reached the $45.58 target in 12 days. Inside the window, it peaked at $76.87 on 2025-11-05, a 132.7% gain. It ended at $43.94, below the target but above the publication price. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-11-03, Microsoft signed a $9.7 billion, five-year cloud services contract with IREN, including a 20% prepayment. IREN also said it had signed a roughly $5.8 billion agreement with Dell Technologies for chips and related equipment.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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