Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) — closed signal from September 12, 2025
Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 11, 2025 — +13% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Came within reach: 81% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.
The thesis — published September 12, 2025
Broadcom is winning in AI chips and networking. A major bank lifted its target to 410 after management guided to $6.2B in AI sales for Q4 and said they have $10B in orders, showing strong, real demand. The price trend looks healthy, with a rising recent average price and lots more people buying than usual. Higher interest rates can still shake the stock, but we expect steady gains over the next 3 months as orders turn into revenue.
Primary drivers
- Company expects $6.2B in AI sales for Q4, showing strong, steady demand.
- Has $10B in AI hardware orders lined up, giving near-term visibility.
- Major bank raised its price target to 410, signaling rising confidence.
- Price trend is firm, with rising recent average price and strong interest.
How it played out
AVGO: target stayed out of reach
Lyra published AVGO at 359 on 2025-09-12 with an expected 19% gain over the short-term window. The thesis pointed to artificial intelligence chip and networking demand, $6.2B in expected Q4 artificial intelligence sales, $10B in hardware orders, a major bank target of 410, and a firm price trend with strong buying interest.
Inside the window, AVGO rose but did not reach the 425.66 target. The peak was 413.82 on 2025-12-10, with a 15.3% peak gain. It ended at 405.59. The thesis partially played out because the stock moved in the expected direction, but it stayed below the target.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-13, OpenAI and Broadcom announced a multi-year collaboration to co-develop and deploy 10 gigawatts of custom accelerators and systems. The report said deployments were planned to start in the second half of 2026.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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