Track record · closed signal

Citigroup Inc. (C) — closed signal from September 11, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 10, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

C price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$97.29 Published $111.23 Target $111.09 Window close $111.91 Peak
$95.36 – $97.34Entry zone — fair-value band
$97.29Published — price the day we called it
$111.23Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$111.91Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$111.09Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 90 days.

Peak price
$111.91
peak on December 10, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+15%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$111.09
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
90
Window
September 11, 2025 – December 10, 2025

The thesis — published September 11, 2025

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$111.23
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$95.36 – $97.34
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$97.29
published September 11, 2025
Confidence
62%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Citi could be a short-term trade. The bank just hired a top AI/data leader, which should help cut costs and manage risk better. The recent average price is edging up, but momentum is still soft, so we would start near the lower end of the range and look for a close above 100 to confirm strength. Possible rate cuts could help banks, making a slow move higher over the next 0-3 months reasonable even if fundamentals are modest.

Primary drivers

  • New AI leader should boost efficiency and improve risk controls bank-wide
  • Recent average price trends up while momentum remains somewhat weak
  • Optimistic mood contrasts with fundamentals that still look only fair
  • Possible interest rate cuts could lower funding costs and lift bank profits

How it played out

C: target reached in 90 days

On 2025-09-11, Lyra published Citigroup at 97.29 with an expected gain of 15%. The thesis pointed to a new artificial intelligence and data leader, better cost and risk work, a recent average price trend that was edging up, weak momentum, fair fundamentals, and possible rate cuts that could help banks.

Inside the window, the stock reached 111.91 on 2025-12-10, above the 111.23 target. It reached the target in 90 days and ended at 111.09. The thesis played out on price. It got there on the final day.

What happened during the window

On October 14, 2025, Financial News reported that Citi's markets business generated $5.6bn in third-quarter revenue, up 15% from a year earlier. The same report said net income rose to $3.8bn.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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