Track record · closed signal

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) — closed signal from September 11, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 10, 2025 — -4.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

UNH price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$336.15 – $342.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$345.13Published — price the day we called it

$391.78Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$378.46Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$328.37Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 65% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-4.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+9.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$328.37

last close inside the window, ended December 10, 2025

Peak price

$378.46

peak on October 28, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 11, 2025

Predicted growth

+15%

over the measurement window

Target price

$391.78

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$336.15 – $342.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$345.13

published September 11, 2025

Confidence

64%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

UnitedHealth has been climbing and still looks strong after a big month. A recent shareholder call and the dividend helped fuel a 39% jump, and the trend remains firm with rising recent average prices. Because the stock ran up quickly, we prefer buying small dips or adding only after a clear new high holds. Over the next 0-3 months, the climb could continue as care-usage worries fade, but keep positions moderate.

Primary drivers

Trend looks healthy; recent average price is rising and momentum is firm.
Recent company call improved mood, easing worries and lifting confidence.
Reliable dividend and clearer guidance make the near-term outlook steadier.
Price ran up fast; better odds buying small pullbacks than chasing new highs.

How it played out

UNH: the thesis only partly played out

Lyra published UNH at $345.13 on 2025-09-11 with expected growth of 15%. The thesis pointed to a healthy trend, a recent company call that improved mood, a reliable dividend, clearer guidance, and a preference for small pullbacks after a fast run.

Inside the window, UNH rose but did not reach the $391.78 target. The peak was $378.46 on 2025-10-28, with a peak gain of 9.7%. It never got there. By 2025-12-10, the stock ended at $328.37. The verdict was partial: the rise happened, but the full thesis missed its target.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-28, UnitedHealth reported third-quarter results, and MarketWatch said earnings and revenue beat expectations while the company raised its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance. On the same date, Kiplinger reported that UnitedHealth rose after a beat-and-raise quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All UNH signals