Track record · closed signal

The Charles Schwab Corporation (SCHW) — closed signal from September 11, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 10, 2025 — +3.3% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SCHW price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$91.48 – $93.47Entry zone — fair-value band

$92.78Published — price the day we called it

$107.33Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$98.22Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$95.81Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 37% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

+3.3%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+5.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+4.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$95.81

last close inside the window, ended December 10, 2025

Peak price

$98.22

peak on November 12, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 11, 2025

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$107.33

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$91.48 – $93.47

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$92.78

published September 11, 2025

Confidence

70%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Schwab looks ready for a short-term bounce after a sharp slide. News shows brokers posted strong Q2 sales, and a respected stock model gives Schwab an 81 out of 100. Short-term signs look stretched and investors are upbeat, but the trend is still soft. Start near this range and add only if shares close above key levels, aiming for a 0-3 month rebound as rate-cut hopes firm.

Primary drivers

Short-term signs suggest the stock dropped too fast and may snap back
Brokers reported strong sales, and a key stock model scores it well
Investor mood is upbeat, and the overall setup is getting better
We want price strength first because the bigger trend still looks soft

How it played out

SCHW: target was not reached

Lyra published SCHW on 2025-09-11 at 92.78. The thesis expected 16% growth toward 107.33 over a short-term window ending 2025-12-10. It pointed to a possible bounce after a sharp slide, stretched short-term signs, strong broker sales, a well-rated stock model, upbeat investor mood, and firmer rate-cut hopes. It also wanted price strength first because the bigger trend still looked soft.

Inside the window, SCHW rose, but not enough. The peak was 98.22 on 2025-11-12, a 5.9% gain. It never reached 107.33. The signal ended at 95.81. The thesis partially played out.

What happened during the window

On November 6, 2025, Charles Schwab announced a deal to buy Forge Global in a transaction valued at $660 million. On November 14, 2025, Barron's reported that Schwab recorded $44.4 billion in core net new assets for October 2025.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All SCHW signals