Track record · closed signal

Citigroup Inc. (C) — closed signal from September 10, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 9, 2025 — +12.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

C price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$97.61 Published $108.68 Target $109.43 Window close $110.25 Peak
$94.87 – $96.64Entry zone — fair-value band
$97.61Published — price the day we called it
$108.68Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$110.25Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$109.43Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 86 days.

At window close
+12.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+12.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$109.43
last close inside the window, ended December 9, 2025
Peak price
$110.25
peak on December 8, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
86

The thesis — published September 10, 2025

Predicted growth
+12%
over the measurement window
Target price
$108.68
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$94.87 – $96.64
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$97.61
published September 10, 2025
Confidence
65%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Citigroup looks like a near-term opportunity because its price trend has been getting healthier and investor interest is solid, while the business picture is mixed. Recent news praised its price setup and noted a new leader for AI and data, which supports the company's plan. If interest rates drift lower, the stock could make a 0-3 month push toward prior price ceilings, but we would wait for clear strength and keep risk small since banks move with the economy.

Primary drivers

  • Price trend is improving and buyer interest remains steady lately
  • Hired a global leader to drive AI and data efforts across the bank
  • Recent news praised the stock's price action and momentum as among the best
  • If rates fall, bank stocks can look cheaper and investors may pay more

How it played out

C: target reached in 86 days

Lyra published C at $97.61 on 2025-09-10 with a short-term view for 12% growth toward $108.68. The thesis pointed to a healthier price trend, steady buyer interest, a new global leader for artificial intelligence and data, strong recent price action, and a possible lift for bank stocks if rates fell.

Inside the window from 2025-09-10 to 2025-12-09, C reached the target in 86 days. It peaked at $110.25 on 2025-12-08, with a 12.9% peak gain. It ended at $109.43. The thesis played out.

What happened during the window

On 2025-10-14, Financial News reported that Citi's markets business generated $5.6 billion in third-quarter revenue, up 15% from a year earlier. The same report said overall net income rose to $3.8 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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