Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) — closed signal from September 10, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 9, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 12 days.
The thesis — published September 10, 2025
Harmony benefits from gold hitting new highs and talk of interest rates easing. The business looks on track, but rising costs mean they must stay careful. This week they noted higher FY25 earnings even with higher all-in costs, which works as long as gold stays strong. The stock can help balance a portfolio and may see a lift over the next 0-3 months. Consider buying on weak days and taking profits on strong days.
Primary drivers
- Record gold helps profits per ounce even as operating costs rise
- FY25 earnings seen higher despite cost increases across the business
- Lower interest rate hopes often boost demand and prices for gold
- Price looks healthy versus its recent average price path
How it played out
HMY: target reached in 12 days
Lyra published HMY on 2025-09-10 at $15.28 with expected growth of 16%. The thesis pointed to record gold, higher FY25 earnings despite higher costs, hopes for lower interest rates, and a price path that looked healthy versus its recent average.
Inside the window from 2025-09-10 to 2025-12-09, the stock reached the $17.66 target in 12 days. It later peaked at $22.25 on 2025-10-16, a 45.6% gain. It ended at $19.75, still above the target. The thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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