Track record · closed signal

Iris Energy Ltd (IREN) — closed signal from September 10, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 9, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

IREN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$32.15 Published $47.26 Target $46.84 Window close $76.87 Peak
$30.50 – $31.80Entry zone — fair-value band
$32.15Published — price the day we called it
$47.26Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$76.87Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$46.84Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 14 days.

Peak price
$76.87
peak on November 5, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+139.1%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$46.84
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
14
Window
September 10, 2025 – December 9, 2025

The thesis — published September 10, 2025

Predicted growth
+47%
over the measurement window
Target price
$47.26
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$30.50 – $31.80
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$32.15
published September 10, 2025
Confidence
93%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Iris Energy tends to move more than the market and is linked to demand for AI computers and cash from Bitcoin. Lately, there has been lots more buying than usual after a calm pause, which keeps the uptrend alive. Fresh news: $76.7M August Bitcoin sales and a new CFO. Microsoft's $17.4B plan to add AI capacity supports data center demand. If interest rates ease, dips may be buyable for the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Lots more buying than usual suggests the uptrend has strength
  • August Bitcoin sales of $76.7M plus a new CFO increase confidence
  • Microsoft's $17.4B AI expansion signals strong data center demand
  • Hopes for lower interest rates tend to lift faster-moving stocks

How it played out

IREN: target reached in 14 days

Lyra published IREN at $32.15 on September 10, 2025, with 47% expected growth toward $47.26. The thesis pointed to heavier buying after a calm pause, $76.7M in August Bitcoin sales, a new CFO, Microsoft's $17.4B plan to add artificial intelligence capacity, and hopes for lower interest rates lifting faster-moving stocks.

Inside the window, the target was reached in 14 days. IREN later peaked at $76.87 on November 5, above the target. The peak gain was 139.1%. By December 9, it had fallen back to $46.84. The thesis played out, then the stock gave back enough to end just below the target.

What happened during the window

On November 3, 2025, AP reported that Microsoft signed a $9.7 billion, five-year cloud-services contract with IREN, with a 20% prepayment. IREN also said it signed a $5.8 billion Dell agreement for chips and related equipment.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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