Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) — closed signal from September 8, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 7, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 51 days.
The thesis — published September 8, 2025
Elanco looks like a recovery story: its product mix is improving and investor mood is better, though the business is still healing. The recent average price is rising, while other signs are slower, so buying on dips may be wiser. Credelio Quattro just became a blockbuster, and joining a midcap index can attract investment funds. Sales rose 4.8% vs last year and beat estimates. Aim for a 0-3 month trade with tight risk limits.
Primary drivers
- New parasite-fighting products are selling well and gaining share.
- Recent average price is rising, but other momentum signs trail.
- Credelio hit blockbuster status; index add could bring more fund buying.
- Quarterly sales rose 4.8% and beat forecasts, backing the turnaround.
How it played out
ELAN: target reached in 51 days
Lyra published ELAN at $18.74 on September 8, 2025, with a short-term setup and expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to an improving product mix, better investor mood, stronger recent average price action, Credelio Quattro reaching blockbuster status, a midcap index addition, and quarterly sales that rose 4.8% and beat forecasts.
Inside the window, the stock reached the $22.49 target in 51 days. It later peaked at $23.70 on November 26, 2025, for a 26.5% gain. By December 7, 2025, it ended at $21.90. The thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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