Banco Santander, S.A. (ADR) (SAN) — closed signal from September 8, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 7, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 88 days.
The thesis — published September 8, 2025
Santander's share price looks washed out, and the recent trend is turning up. Market mood is positive, though the business picture varies by country in Europe and Latin America. BBVA's offer for Sabadell has put Spanish banks in the spotlight, which can lift valuations. We favor buying in small steps with clear loss limits, aiming for a bounce as central banks cut rates and borrowing conditions slowly improve.
Primary drivers
- Price looks oversold while the short-term trend is steadily improving
- Positive market mood makes a near-term rebound more likely than not
- BBVA's bid for Sabadell spotlights Spanish banks and could lift values
- Falling interest rates can help lending volumes and banks' lending profits
How it played out
SAN: target reached in 88 days
Lyra published SAN at 9.60 on 2025-09-08 with a short-term thesis for 16% growth. The thesis pointed to an oversold price, an improving short-term trend, positive market mood, BBVA's bid for Sabadell putting Spanish banks in focus, and falling interest rates helping lending volumes and lending profits.
Inside the window, SAN rose to 11.15 on 2025-12-05, above the 11.03 target. It reached the target in 88 days. The peak gain was 16.2%. By 2025-12-07, it ended at 10.97, still near the target area but below the peak. The published thesis played out.
What happened during the window
On 2025-09-30, Santander approved an interim cash dividend of 11.5 cents per share, payable on 2025-11-03. On 2025-10-29, Santander reported profit of 10.336 billion euros for January to September 2025, up 11% from the prior year period.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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