Track record · closed signal

NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) — closed signal from September 8, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 7, 2025 — +7.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

NVDA price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$164.96 – $172.96Entry zone — fair-value band

$169.86Published — price the day we called it

$220.80Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$212.18Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$182.41Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 83% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+7.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+24.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$182.41

last close inside the window, ended December 7, 2025

Peak price

$212.18

peak on October 29, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 8, 2025

Predicted growth

+30%

over the measurement window

Target price

$220.80

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$164.96 – $172.96

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$169.86

published September 8, 2025

Confidence

82%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Shares look very sold off, which often leads to a snap back toward more normal prices in a top AI supplier. Buying in steps makes sense. A new report says GPU demand could grow about 28% a year through 2033, and Wedbush again called Nvidia a leading AI winner, which helps balance Citi's cautious target cut. The long-term story still looks strong, and a quick rebound is likely as sellers lose steam and price swings remain high.

Primary drivers

AI computing needs remain strong across cloud, enterprise, and edge uses
Very sold-off setup may lead to a short-term bounce in the stock
Fresh news: GPUs seen growing about 28% yearly; Wedbush stays bullish
Citi's cautious target cools hopes a bit but not the long-term case

How it played out

NVDA: strong rally, but target was not reached

Lyra published NVDA at $169.86 on 2025-09-08 with expected growth of 30%. The thesis pointed to a sold-off setup, strong artificial intelligence computing needs, a GPU demand forecast of about 28% yearly, and a bullish Wedbush view. It also noted Citi's cautious target as a brake on hopes.

Inside the window, the stock rose to $212.18 on 2025-10-29, a 24.9% peak gain. That stayed below the $220.8 target, so the target was never reached. NVDA ended at $182.41. The thesis partly played out, but it missed the stated target.

What happened during the window

On October 28, 2025, Axios reported that Nvidia announced projects at its Washington conference, including work with the U.S. Department of Energy on seven supercomputers. On November 19, 2025, The Verge reported that Nvidia's third-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue was $57 billion and data center revenue was $51.2 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All NVDA signals