Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) — closed signal from September 8, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 7, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 15 days.
The thesis — published September 8, 2025
Gold just hit a new high, which usually helps miners like Harmony because higher metal prices can quickly boost their profits. The company's latest year showed solid progress: earnings up 30% and sales up 24%, even with higher costs, so cash coming in looks healthier. Shares rose with gold this week. Near-term trading looks choppy, so consider buying on down days, expecting higher lows if gold stays firm.
Primary drivers
- Gold at record highs can quickly lift miner profits more than metal prices.
- FY25 showed earnings up 30% and sales up 24%, signaling healthier cash flow.
- Short-term price action is uneven, making buy-the-dip entries more attractive.
- This week's new gold high drew more interest and helped push Harmony's stock up.
How it played out
HMY: target reached in 15 days
Lyra published HMY at $14.60 on 2025-09-08 with a short-term expectation of 24% growth. The thesis pointed to gold at record highs, FY25 earnings up 30%, sales up 24%, healthier cash flow, uneven short-term trading, and stronger recent interest in the stock.
Inside the window from 2025-09-08 to 2025-12-07, the stock reached the $18.04 target in 15 days. It later peaked at $22.25 on 2025-10-16, a 52.4% gain. It ended at $19.29, still above the target. The published thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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