Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) — closed signal from September 8, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 7, 2025 — +32.1% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 15 days.
The thesis — published September 8, 2025
Gold just hit a new high, which usually helps miners like Harmony because higher metal prices can quickly boost their profits. The company's latest year showed solid progress: earnings up 30% and sales up 24%, even with higher costs, so cash coming in looks healthier. Shares rose with gold this week. Near-term trading looks choppy, so consider buying on down days, expecting higher lows if gold stays firm.
Primary drivers
- Gold at record highs can quickly lift miner profits more than metal prices.
- FY25 showed earnings up 30% and sales up 24%, signaling healthier cash flow.
- Short-term price action is uneven, making buy-the-dip entries more attractive.
- This week's new gold high drew more interest and helped push Harmony's stock up.
How it played out
HMY: target reached in 15 days
Lyra published HMY at $14.60 on 2025-09-08 with a short-term expectation of 24% growth. The thesis pointed to gold at record highs, FY25 earnings up 30%, sales up 24%, healthier cash flow, uneven short-term trading, and stronger recent interest in the stock.
Inside the window from 2025-09-08 to 2025-12-07, the stock reached the $18.04 target in 15 days. It later peaked at $22.25 on 2025-10-16, a 52.4% gain. It ended at $19.29, still above the target. The published thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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