Track record · closed signal

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) — closed signal from September 8, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 7, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

CTRE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$33.71 Published $37.70 Target $37.36 Window close $37.97 Peak
$32.26 – $33.22Entry zone — fair-value band
$33.71Published — price the day we called it
$37.70Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$37.97Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$37.36Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.

Peak price
$37.97
peak on December 4, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+12.7%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$37.36
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 8, 2025 – December 7, 2025

The thesis — published September 8, 2025

Predicted growth
+14%
over the measurement window
Target price
$37.70
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$32.26 – $33.22
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$33.71
published September 8, 2025
Confidence
77%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

This is a steady healthcare landlord that collects rent from nursing homes and senior living sites. The price looks ready for a short-term rebound, and the recent average price is trending up. The company is expanding into the UK and raised $353.9M, giving it cash to do more deals. A positive public mention helped mood. If borrowing costs ease, real estate often benefits, which could support a recovery over the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

  • Reliable rent from nursing homes and senior living supports steady income
  • Price looks washed out while the recent average price points higher
  • News: entering the UK and raising $353.9M to fund more property deals
  • Lower borrowing costs typically lift real estate stock valuations

How it played out

CTRE: peak topped target, but 14% growth missed

Lyra published CTRE on 2025-09-08 at 33.71 with expected growth of 14%. The thesis pointed to reliable rent from nursing homes and senior living, a washed-out price with a higher recent average, UK expansion, a $353.9M raise for more property deals, and lower borrowing costs as possible support for real estate stocks.

Inside the 2025-09-08 to 2025-12-07 window, CTRE peaked at 37.97 on 2025-12-04, versus the 37.70 target. The recorded peak gain was 12.7%, below the 14% expected growth. The signal did not record the target as reached. It ended at 37.36. The thesis mostly played out, but missed the full expected move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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