Track record · closed signal

CareTrust REIT, Inc. (CTRE) — closed signal from September 8, 2025

Near target Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 7, 2025 — +10.8% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CTRE price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$32.26 – $33.22Entry zone — fair-value band

$33.71Published — price the day we called it

$37.70Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$37.97Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$37.36Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Near target

Came within reach: 91% of the predicted growth at its peak, just short of the target.

At window close

+10.8%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+12.7%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$37.36

last close inside the window, ended December 7, 2025

Peak price

$37.97

peak on December 4, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published September 8, 2025

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$37.70

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$32.26 – $33.22

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$33.71

published September 8, 2025

Confidence

77%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

This is a steady healthcare landlord that collects rent from nursing homes and senior living sites. The price looks ready for a short-term rebound, and the recent average price is trending up. The company is expanding into the UK and raised $353.9M, giving it cash to do more deals. A positive public mention helped mood. If borrowing costs ease, real estate often benefits, which could support a recovery over the next 0-3 months.

Primary drivers

Reliable rent from nursing homes and senior living supports steady income
Price looks washed out while the recent average price points higher
News: entering the UK and raising $353.9M to fund more property deals
Lower borrowing costs typically lift real estate stock valuations

How it played out

CTRE: peak topped target, but 14% growth missed

Lyra published CTRE on 2025-09-08 at 33.71 with expected growth of 14%. The thesis pointed to reliable rent from nursing homes and senior living, a washed-out price with a higher recent average, UK expansion, a $353.9M raise for more property deals, and lower borrowing costs as possible support for real estate stocks.

Inside the 2025-09-08 to 2025-12-07 window, CTRE peaked at 37.97 on 2025-12-04, versus the 37.70 target. The recorded peak gain was 12.7%, below the 14% expected growth. The signal did not record the target as reached. It ended at 37.36. The thesis mostly played out, but missed the full expected move.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All CTRE signals