Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) — closed signal from September 7, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 6, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Hit or exceeded the predicted growth inside the window.
The thesis — published September 7, 2025
Broadcom is a major supplier for AI chips, and demand looks strong. A confirmed $10B order and a goal for AI to be 25% of chip sales this year are big positives. But the stock has run up fast and looks pricey. Over the next 3 months, we prefer buying on pullbacks toward the rising recent average price, while staying aware that investors might later pay less for each dollar of profit.
Primary drivers
- Confirmed $10B AI chip order adds clear demand and revenue visibility
- AI could be 25% of chip sales this year, sharpening growth focus ahead
- Price trend is strong with lots more buyers than usual right now in markets
- Shares look expensive, so a pullback or slower gains are possible
How it played out
AVGO: target not reached after 20.5% peak gain
Lyra published AVGO at 333.68 on 2025-09-07 with 22% expected growth. The thesis pointed to strong demand for artificial intelligence chips, a confirmed $10B order, and artificial intelligence possibly reaching 25% of chip sales this year. It also said the shares looked expensive, so a pullback or slower gains were possible.
Inside the window, AVGO rose to 402.23 on 2025-11-28, a 20.5% peak gain. That stayed below the 405.62 target. It never got there. The stock ended the window at 389.49, so the thesis mostly played out on direction, but missed the target.
What happened during the window
On October 13, 2025, Broadcom and OpenAI announced a multibillion-dollar chip-development agreement for 10 gigawatts of custom artificial intelligence chips and computing systems, with deployment planned to start in the second half of the next year.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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