Alphabet Inc. (Class C) (GOOG) — closed signal from September 7, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 6, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 52 days.
The thesis — published September 7, 2025
Alphabet looks strong in the near term. More buyers than usual and a rising recent average price line up with better profits in Cloud. A court decision may limit some search deals, but should be manageable for now. Apple may upgrade Siri with an AI answer tool in 2026, which is far off. Over the next 3 months, consider buying small pullbacks as AI progress and steady ads matter more than legal noise.
Primary drivers
- Buying activity is heavier than usual, and the price trend is improving.
- Cloud division is scaling, converting a higher share of revenue into profit.
- Possible legal changes to search deals look modest and manageable.
- New AI features help offset competitive pressure from Apple over time.
How it played out
GOOG: target reached in 52 days
Lyra published GOOG at 235.02 on 2025-09-07 with 16% expected growth and a 272.44 target. The thesis pointed to heavier buying activity, an improving price trend, better Cloud profit conversion, manageable legal changes to search deals, and artificial intelligence features as offsets to future competitive pressure.
Inside the window, the stock reached the target in 52 days. It kept rising to a 328.46 peak on 2025-11-25, a 39.8% gain at the high. It ended the window at 321.88, still above the target. The published thesis played out, and the price action exceeded the target set at publication.
What happened during the window
On 2025-10-29, Alphabet reported July to September revenue of $102.3 billion and profit of nearly $35 billion. On 2025-10-24, MarketWatch reported an expanded Anthropic agreement for access to up to 1 million Google tensor processing units and Google Cloud services.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.