Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) — closed signal from September 7, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 6, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 16 days.
The thesis — published September 7, 2025
Harmony offers extra exposure to gold. Recent news shows net income up 75% and revenue up 24% as gold hit new highs, which helped even though operating costs rose about 20%. The share price has been pausing, so buying on dips can be smarter than chasing a spike. Over the next 3 months, steady gold prices and tighter spending could guide the stock back toward its prior trend.
Primary drivers
- Very high gold prices help profits grow even if mining costs rise
- This year's profit and sales look strong and are moving up from last year
- Price has been pausing recently, so pullbacks can offer better entries
- Rising all-in costs are a major risk to profits if gold prices ease
How it played out
HMY: target reached in 16 days
Lyra published HMY at 14.05 on 2025-09-07 with expected growth of 28% toward 17.92. The thesis pointed to extra exposure to gold, net income up 75%, revenue up 24%, gold at new highs, and a pause in the share price. It also named rising all-in costs as a major risk if gold prices eased.
Inside the window, HMY reached the target in 16 days. It later peaked at 22.25 on 2025-10-16, a 58.3% gain. The window ended on 2025-12-06 with the stock at 19.29. The published thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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