Track record · closed signal

Blue Bird Corporation (BLBD) — closed signal from September 7, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 6, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

BLBD price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$58.83 Published $69.42 Target $51.27 Window close $61.95 Peak
$57.50 – $59.50Entry zone — fair-value band
$58.83Published — price the day we called it
$69.42Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$61.95Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$51.27Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 29% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$61.95
peak on September 23, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+5.3%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$51.27
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 7, 2025 – December 6, 2025

The thesis — published September 7, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$69.42
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$57.50 – $59.50
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$58.83
published September 7, 2025
Confidence
72%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

- Explain the plan - Highlight why the company can grow - Keep risk clear and simple - Use easy numbers we can track BLBD dipped but the bigger trend still looks healthy. It has a top analyst rank, beat its sector by 51.2% this year, and trades at about 14.47 times expected earnings, which is reasonable. Buying in steps near $57.50-$59.50 aims for a move back toward its usual range as demand and pricing for electric school buses help profits. Sticking to the range helps control entry price.

Primary drivers

  • Recent pullback within an overall uptrend, setting up a bounce opportunity
  • Top analyst ranking and up 51.2% this year versus its sector peers
  • Looks reasonably priced at about 14.47 times next year earnings estimates
  • Growing demand for electric school buses supports future sales and margins

How it played out

BLBD: target missed after a 5.3% peak gain

Lyra published BLBD on 2025-09-07 at $58.83 with an expected 18% move. The target was $69.42. The thesis pointed to a pullback inside a larger uptrend, a top analyst rank, a 51.2% gain versus sector peers that year, a valuation near 14.47 times expected earnings, and demand and pricing for electric school buses.

Inside the 2025-09-07 to 2025-12-06 window, BLBD peaked at $61.95 on 2025-09-23, a 5.3% gain. It stayed below the target. The stock ended at $51.27. The thesis only partially played out: there was a small early bounce, but the published target was never reached.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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