Track record · closed signal

Arhaus, Inc. (ARHS) — closed signal from September 6, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 5, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

ARHS price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$11.52 Published $13.59 Target $10.54 Window close $11.82 Peak
$11.40 – $11.70Entry zone — fair-value band
$11.52Published — price the day we called it
$13.59Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$11.82Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$10.54Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 14% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$11.82
peak on September 17, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+2.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$10.54
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 6, 2025 – December 5, 2025

The thesis — published September 6, 2025

Predicted growth
+18%
over the measurement window
Target price
$13.59
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$11.40 – $11.70
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$11.52
published September 6, 2025
Confidence
60%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Arhaus looks temporarily beaten down even as interest in the brand stays strong. The new Fall 2025 collection can bring shoppers back while the overall market feels steadier. Because buying energy still looks weak, the better plan is to start near the lower price range and only add if the price proves itself with stronger trading. If the market stays friendly, the stock could build a base over about three months and work back toward past trouble spots.

Primary drivers

  • Shares look beaten down; a rebound becomes more likely after sharp drops
  • Fresh Fall collection can pull more shoppers and keep interest high
  • Many investors feel positive, which can help the stock bounce faster
  • Wait for strong close and heavier trading before buying more shares

How it played out

ARHS: the target was never reached

Lyra published ARHS at $11.52 on September 6, 2025, with expected growth of 18% over a short-term window. The thesis pointed to a stock that looked beaten down, a Fall 2025 collection that could bring shoppers back, positive investor mood, and the need for a stronger close with heavier trading before adding more.

Inside the window, ARHS peaked at $11.82 on September 17, 2025, for a 2.6% gain. That stayed below the $13.59 target. The stock ended the window at $10.54 on December 5, 2025. The thesis did not play out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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