Track record · closed signal

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) — closed signal from September 6, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 5, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

FND price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$87.47 Published $104.96 Target $63.48 Window close $92.41 Peak
$86.00 – $89.00Entry zone — fair-value band
$87.47Published — price the day we called it
$104.96Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$92.41Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$63.48Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 28% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$92.41
peak on September 17, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+5.6%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$63.48
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 6, 2025 – December 5, 2025

The thesis — published September 6, 2025

Predicted growth
+20%
over the measurement window
Target price
$104.96
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$86.00 – $89.00
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$87.47
published September 6, 2025
Confidence
64%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Floor & Decor has strong attention in home improvement. Recently, lots more people are buying than usual and the price has been firm. Big peers like Home Depot did well this quarter, so more money is moving into the group. Small pullbacks could be chances to buy, but the stock looks a bit expensive. We see this more as a short-term idea over about three months, not a long-term core holding, aiming to ride current interest without overcommitting.

Primary drivers

  • Many more buyers than usual, and the price trend has been strong lately
  • Rivals like Home Depot are doing well, lifting the home improvement group
  • Positive mood around the stock is attracting more money from investors
  • Upward trend looks healthy for near-term gains, barring negative surprises

How it played out

FND: target was not reached

Lyra published FND at 87.47 on 2025-09-06 as a short-term idea. The thesis expected 20% growth toward 104.96. It pointed to unusually strong buying, a firm recent price trend, strength in home improvement peers, positive mood around the stock, and a healthy near-term uptrend if there were no negative surprises.

Inside the window, FND rose only to 92.41 on 2025-09-17, a 5.6% peak gain. It stayed below the 104.96 target and never reached it. By 2025-12-05, it ended at 63.48. The thesis only partially played out early, then missed the target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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