Track record · closed signal

Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc. (FND) — closed signal from September 5, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 4, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

FND price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$84.00 – $87.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$86.38Published — price the day we called it

$100.20Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$92.41Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$64.95Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 44% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$92.41

peak on September 17, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+7%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$64.95

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

September 5, 2025 – December 4, 2025

The thesis — published September 5, 2025

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$100.20

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$84.00 – $87.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$86.38

published September 5, 2025

Confidence

61%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

This looks like a short-term retail trade driven by mood and momentum. The recent average price is gently rising, and there is lots more buying than usual. The home improvement space helps, with Home Depot doing well and Lowe's working to win more professional shoppers. Company numbers are still soft, so consider buying on dips after strength shows. If housing and pro demand steady, a modest climb in the next few months is possible.

Primary drivers

Very positive mood, and the recent average price is improving steadily
Home Depot's gains and Lowe's push for pros lift the category's mood
Unusually heavy trading suggests buyer interest is building, not fading
Business results remain soft, so prefer buying on pullbacks after strength

How it played out

FND: target was not reached

Lyra published FND at 86.38 on 2025-09-05 for a short-term window ending 2025-12-04. The thesis expected 16% growth and pointed to positive mood, a steadily improving recent average price, unusually heavy trading, better category mood from Home Depot and Lowe's, and soft company numbers that made pullbacks preferable.

Inside the window, FND peaked at 92.41 on 2025-09-17, a 7% gain. That stayed below the 100.2 target, so the target was never reached. By the end of the window, the stock was at 64.95. The thesis only partially played out, then missed.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All FND signals