Track record · closed signal

UWM Holdings Corporation (UWMC) — closed signal from September 5, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 4, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

UWMC price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$6.00 Published $7.52 Target $5.68 Window close $6.89 Peak
$5.49 – $5.82Entry zone — fair-value band
$6.00Published — price the day we called it
$7.52Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$6.89Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$5.68Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 50% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price
$6.89
peak on September 11, 2025 — not a realized return
Peak gain
+14.9%
peak, from the publication price
Window close
$5.68
end-of-window price, context only
Days to target
—
Window
September 5, 2025 – December 4, 2025

The thesis — published September 5, 2025

Predicted growth
+30%
over the measurement window
Target price
$7.52
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$5.49 – $5.82
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$6.00
published September 5, 2025
Confidence
62%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

UWMC jumped after strong results and a 20% increase in loans made. Lots more people are buying than usual, and the price sits above its recent average price. However, notable insider selling and a model pointing below today's price make the move fragile. Hopes for lower rates support mortgage lenders, so gains can persist for 0-3 months, but this is a short-term trade, not a lasting reset. Keep risk tight.

Primary drivers

  • Strong results, with loan production up 20% versus the same period last year
  • Powerful buying interest, with far more trading activity than usual
  • Recent insider selling suggests the rally may be less durable than it looks
  • Expectations of lower rates could boost new mortgages and company volumes

How it played out

UWMC: the target was not reached

Lyra published UWMC at $6 on September 5, 2025, with expected growth of 30%. The thesis pointed to strong results, loan production up 20% versus the same period last year, unusually heavy buying interest, insider selling that made the rally look fragile, and expectations of lower rates that could support mortgage volumes.

Inside the window, UWMC rose to a peak of $6.89 on September 11, 2025, for a 14.9% gain. That stayed below the $7.52 target. The target was never reached. By December 4, 2025, the stock ended at $5.68. The thesis partially played out, but it missed the full target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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