Track record · closed signal

Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) — closed signal from September 5, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 4, 2025.

Predicted vs. what happened

CRM price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$242.37 – $246.34Entry zone — fair-value band

$247.12Published — price the day we called it

$290.62Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$266.70Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$247.06Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 44% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

Peak price

$266.70

peak on October 21, 2025 — not a realized return

Peak gain

+7.9%

peak, from the publication price

Window close

$247.06

end-of-window price, context only

Days to target

—

Window

September 5, 2025 – December 4, 2025

The thesis — published September 5, 2025

Predicted growth

+18%

over the measurement window

Target price

$290.62

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$242.37 – $246.34

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$247.12

published September 5, 2025

Confidence

66%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Salesforce is seeing steadier buying and more trading activity than usual. It just announced a dividend, which suggests healthy finances. But Goldman warns that excitement around AI may have pushed prices high, so a pullback is possible. The recent average price is still a bit weak, so consider starting near $244-$248 and add only if it holds above $254. If business demand stays solid, a slow climb over 3 months is realistic.

Primary drivers

Buying interest is rising, with heavier trading and a broadly positive tone
New dividend suggests sturdy finances and confidence in ongoing cash generation
Strong footing with sticky business customers and capacity to return cash
Goldman cautions that AI buzz may have pushed the share price too high

How it played out

CRM: target was not reached

Lyra published CRM at $247.12 on 2025-09-05 with an expected 18% short-term gain. The thesis pointed to rising buying interest, heavier trading, a new dividend, sticky business customers, and capacity to return cash. It also noted Goldman's caution that artificial intelligence excitement may have pushed the share price too high.

Inside the window, CRM rose to a peak of $266.70 on 2025-10-21, a 7.9% gain. It stayed below the $290.62 target and never reached it. By 2025-12-04, it ended at $247.06. The thesis partially played out, but the target was missed.

What happened during the window

On 2025-12-04, MarketWatch reported that Salesforce raised its full-year revenue forecast after quarterly revenue of $10.3 billion. On 2025-12-04, Barron's reported adjusted earnings of $3.25 per share and revenue of $10.26 billion for the quarter.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

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