Track record · closed signal

Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) — closed signal from September 5, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 4, 2025 — +22.4% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

ELAN price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$17.50 – $18.00Entry zone — fair-value band

$17.97Published — price the day we called it

$20.84Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$23.70Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$21.99Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 26 days.

At window close

+22.4%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+31.9%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$21.99

last close inside the window, ended December 4, 2025

Peak price

$23.70

peak on November 26, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published September 5, 2025

Predicted growth

+16%

over the measurement window

Target price

$20.84

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$17.50 – $18.00

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$17.97

published September 5, 2025

Confidence

62%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Short term, this looks like a mood-driven bounce idea. Sales last quarter beat expectations, and the stock was added to a major mid-size index, which can bring automatic buying from investment funds. A rival's new vaccine pushed the price down, which could be a better entry. The risk is how well Elanco executes and handles competition. Over the next 0-3 months, these positives could help the price recover if buying shows up.

Primary drivers

Last quarter's sales came in higher than expected, lifting confidence.
Now part of a major mid-size stock index, inviting fund buying.
Price looked washed out and the recent average price trend is turning up.
A rival launched a vaccine, adding competition that could pressure results.

How it played out

ELAN: target reached in 26 days

Lyra published ELAN at $17.97 on 2025-09-05 as a short-term bounce thesis. The expected gain was 16%. The thesis pointed to better-than-expected sales last quarter, index inclusion that could bring fund buying, a washed-out price with the recent average trend turning up, and competition from a rival vaccine as the main risk.

Inside the window, the stock reached the $20.84 target in 26 days. It kept rising and peaked at $23.7 on 2025-11-26, a 31.9% gain. By 2025-12-04, it ended at $21.99. The published thesis played out and then went beyond the target.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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