Track record · closed signal

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) — closed signal from September 5, 2025

Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 4, 2025 — +41.9% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

CAT price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$412.63 – $422.57Entry zone — fair-value band

$422.15Published — price the day we called it

$479.87Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$602.72Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$599.15Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Target reached

Reached its target in 18 days.

At window close

+41.9%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+42.8%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+6%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$599.15

last close inside the window, ended December 4, 2025

Peak price

$602.72

peak on December 4, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

The thesis — published September 5, 2025

Predicted growth

+14%

over the measurement window

Target price

$479.87

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$412.63 – $422.57

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$422.15

published September 5, 2025

Confidence

68%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

Caterpillar's stock looks beaten down, which can set up a short-term bounce. But news is heavy: Norway's $2T fund sold over geopolitical concerns, and the company said new tariffs could cut profit by up to $1.8B, which can limit how highly investors value it. A rebound toward recent trading ranges is possible if policy noise cools and industrials steady, but use tight risk controls.

Primary drivers

Share price looks beaten down, so a near-term rebound is plausible
Norway's $2T fund selling the stock adds headline pressure and image risk
Tariffs could reduce profit by up to $1.8B, weighing on investor valuations
Keep risk small given policy headlines and economy-sensitive industry

How it played out

CAT: target reached in 18 days

Lyra published CAT at $422.15 on 2025-09-05 with expected growth of 14% and a target of $479.87. The thesis pointed to a beaten-down share price, a possible short-term rebound, Norway's $2T fund sale, and tariff risk that could cut profit by up to $1.8B.

CAT reached the $479.87 target in 18 days. Inside the window, it peaked at $602.72 on 2025-12-04, a 42.8% gain, versus the expected 14%. It ended at $599.15. The thesis played out and went further than published.

What happened during the window

On Oct. 29, 2025, Caterpillar reported third-quarter revenue of $17.64 billion and adjusted earnings per share of $4.95. On the same date, MarketWatch reported a backlog of $39.8 billion.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

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