Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) — closed signal from September 5, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 4, 2025 — +33.5% at the close.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 17 days.
The thesis — published September 5, 2025
Harmony benefits when gold is high, and gold just set new records. Full-year profit rose 75% compared to last year, showing solid cash generation. But its all-in cost per ounce rose 20% to $1,806, which can squeeze profits if gold falls. Price momentum looks mixed, so buying pullbacks after clear strength may be safer. Over the next 0-3 months, steady gold could support further gains, but volatility argues for modest position sizes.
Primary drivers
- Gold just hit new highs this week, a clear tailwind for gold miners
- Full-year profit rose 75% compared to last year, boosting cash flow
- All-in mining costs rose 20%, squeezing profit margins if gold eases
- Price signals are mixed, so buying on dips may offer better entries
How it played out
HMY: target reached in 17 days
Lyra published HMY on 2025-09-05 at $14.34 with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to high gold prices, full-year profit up 75%, and solid cash generation. It also flagged a 20% rise in all-in costs to $1,806, which could squeeze profits if gold fell. The setup was short-term and the tone was cautious because price signals were mixed.
Inside the window from 2025-09-05 to 2025-12-04, HMY reached the $17.14 target in 17 days. It later peaked at $22.25 on 2025-10-16, a 55.2% gain. It ended at $19.14. The thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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