Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) — closed signal from September 5, 2025
Target reached Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 4, 2025.
Predicted vs. what happened
What happened
Reached its target in 17 days.
The thesis — published September 5, 2025
Harmony benefits when gold is high, and gold just set new records. Full-year profit rose 75% compared to last year, showing solid cash generation. But its all-in cost per ounce rose 20% to $1,806, which can squeeze profits if gold falls. Price momentum looks mixed, so buying pullbacks after clear strength may be safer. Over the next 0-3 months, steady gold could support further gains, but volatility argues for modest position sizes.
Primary drivers
- Gold just hit new highs this week, a clear tailwind for gold miners
- Full-year profit rose 75% compared to last year, boosting cash flow
- All-in mining costs rose 20%, squeezing profit margins if gold eases
- Price signals are mixed, so buying on dips may offer better entries
How it played out
HMY: target reached in 17 days
Lyra published HMY on 2025-09-05 at $14.34 with expected growth of 20%. The thesis pointed to high gold prices, full-year profit up 75%, and solid cash generation. It also flagged a 20% rise in all-in costs to $1,806, which could squeeze profits if gold fell. The setup was short-term and the tone was cautious because price signals were mixed.
Inside the window from 2025-09-05 to 2025-12-04, HMY reached the $17.14 target in 17 days. It later peaked at $22.25 on 2025-10-16, a 55.2% gain. It ended at $19.14. The thesis played out.
Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.
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