Track record · closed signal

Harmony Biosciences Holdings, Inc. (HRMY) — closed signal from July 1, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on September 29, 2025 — -14% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

HRMY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted

$31.50 – $32.20Entry zone — fair-value band

$32.15Published — price the day we called it

$41.80Target — the price the thesis aimed for

$38.28Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return

$27.64Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 64% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close

-14%

realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window

Peak gain

+19.1%

peak, from the publication price — not a realized return

S&P 500, same window

+7.8%

SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted

Window close

$27.64

last close inside the window, ended September 29, 2025

Peak price

$38.28

peak on August 27, 2025 — not a realized return

Days to target

—

The thesis — published July 1, 2025

Predicted growth

+30%

over the measurement window

Target price

$41.80

the price the thesis aimed for

Entry zone

$31.50 – $32.20

the fair-value band we waited for

Price at publication

$32.15

published July 1, 2025

Confidence

88%

how strongly the data lined up

Timeframe

Short-term (0–3 months)

The share price dropped sharply and now looks unusually cheap just as new positive test results for a follow-up medicine were announced at a major sleep-medicine meeting. A research bank still thinks shares are worth 48 dollars. The company’s main drug keeps lifting sales by about 35 percent a year with solid 25 percent profit levels and 480 million dollars in cash. Trading activity suddenly swelled, hinting a move back to the mid-40s within three months.

Primary drivers

Stock looks very cheap and trading volume jumped, often a sign of rebound.
Fresh study data and a 48-dollar target renew excitement about future drugs.
Sales still climb about 35 percent a year with 25 percent profits, easing worries.
Very upbeat sentiment and more call-option buying show new investors stepping in.

How it played out

HRMY: target was not reached inside the window

Lyra published HRMY at 32.15 on July 1, 2025, with expected growth of 30 percent. The thesis pointed to a stock that looked cheap after a sharp drop, heavier trading volume, fresh study data, a 48-dollar research target, sales growth of about 35 percent a year, 25 percent profit levels, 480 million dollars in cash, upbeat sentiment, and more call-option buying.

Inside the window, HRMY rose but did not reach the 41.80 target. The peak was 38.28 on August 27, 2025, with a 19.1 percent gain. It later ended at 27.64 on September 29, 2025. The thesis partially played out.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

Lyra

Read the next call before it closes.

This is one signal, scored after the fact. Today’s picks come with the same plain-language thesis — published before anyone knows the outcome.

See today’s picks All HRMY signals