Track record · closed signal

Sony Group Corporation (SONY) — closed signal from September 4, 2025

Partial Published before the outcome was known, scored automatically when the window closed on December 3, 2025 — +3.1% at the close.

Predicted vs. what happened

SONY price · publication thesis → realized outcomesplit-adjusted
$27.61 Published $31.66 Target $28.46 Window close $30.34 Peak
$26.85 – $27.55Entry zone — fair-value band
$27.61Published — price the day we called it
$31.66Target — the price the thesis aimed for
$30.34Peak — highest point inside the window, not a realized return
$28.46Window close — end-of-window price, context only

What happened

Partial

Reached 66% of the predicted growth at its peak, without hitting the target.

At window close
+3.1%
realized, from the publication price to the last close inside the window
Peak gain
+9.9%
peak, from the publication price — not a realized return
S&P 500, same window
+5.6%
SPY over the identical days, dividend-adjusted
Window close
$28.46
last close inside the window, ended December 3, 2025
Peak price
$30.34
peak on November 12, 2025 — not a realized return
Days to target
—

The thesis — published September 4, 2025

Predicted growth
+15%
over the measurement window
Target price
$31.66
the price the thesis aimed for
Entry zone
$26.85 – $27.55
the fair-value band we waited for
Price at publication
$27.61
published September 4, 2025
Confidence
64%
how strongly the data lined up
Timeframe
Short-term (0–3 months)

Shares dropped hard after hours and look very beaten down. Many investors likely sold in a rush, but overall interest in the company remains solid. A news miss on turning content into cash hurt the mood. Gaming and music should help steady results. The recent price trend is weak, so this is a short-term bounce idea over about 3 months if management steadies execution and demand returns to normal.

Primary drivers

  • Price looks washed out after a rush of selling, setting up a rebound
  • Investor interest remains firm even after the drop in after-hours
  • Upcoming games and music releases can backstop revenue and profit
  • Improved day-to-day execution is needed to keep any recovery going

How it played out

SONY: rebound started but target was not reached

Lyra published SONY on 2025-09-04 at $27.61 as a short-term bounce idea. The thesis expected 15% growth, with a target of $31.66. It pointed to a washed-out price after rushed selling, firm investor interest, upcoming games and music releases, and better day-to-day execution as the conditions needed for a recovery.

Inside the window from 2025-09-04 to 2025-12-03, SONY rose but did not reach the target. The peak was $30.34 on 2025-11-12, a 9.9% gain. It ended at $28.46. The thesis partially played out, but the full target was missed.

What happened during the window

On November 11, 2025, Sony raised its annual earnings forecast after a stronger second quarter, according to The Wall Street Journal. The report said Sony cited a smaller projected tariff drag and the global success of the latest "Demon Slayer" anime movie.

Prices are shown split- and dividend-adjusted, matching what public charts show today.

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